Latest UK economic and market outlook. 

Latest Asian economic and market outlook. 

Latest Emerging Markets (Core) economic and market outlook. 

Latest Environmental Solutions outlook. 

Latest ACWI ex-US economic and market outlook. 

Latest Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) economic and market outlook. 

Latest Global SMID-Cap economic and market outlook. 

For years, US exceptionalism has been driven by the dominance of its tech giants, an energy boom and aggressive government spending. But as these forces start to wane, Emerging Markets are stepping into the spotlight, bolstered by cyclical tailwinds, a peaking dollar, structural advantages, attractive valuations and diversification benefits. Indeed, the correlation of MSCI EM and MSCI China to the S&P500 is now just 0.26 and 0.1, respectively. Investors are rapidly recalibrating their strategies for this new reality. So, is this the dawn of a long-awaited EM renaissance? 

We believe that Trump’s election victory is an enormous opportunity as we cross the Rubicon into a more volatile, polarised world. This investment environment will likely be characterised by increasing uncertainty, event-risk, and a divergence in performance between relative winners and losers. In short, it should suit truly active, contrarian and agile investors such as TT. In this piece, we discuss some of the scenarios that markets may be overlooking, and therefore where opportunities could lie, before outlining some potential EM winners and losers from a Trump presidency.

Datacentres are not a new phenomenon - the world has been seeing rapid growth in the deployment of datacentres for many years. But more recently this growth rate has been accelerating due to the adoption of AI, with strong growth expected to continue for many years to come. This has widespread implications for the environment, for economies and for equities, including our environmental universe.

Amid a widening economic growth differential, attractive relative valuations and light investor positioning, we see multiple reasons for asset allocators to revisit EM, with the Fed’s first rate cut being a key catalyst for this shift to begin in earnest. After many years of disappointing returns from EM assets, we believe it is their time to shine. 

Following a perfect storm for EM assets and years of chronic underrepresentation in global portfolios, we believe the time is right for investors to increase their allocations. Both cyclical and fundamental factors now favour EM, whilst the asset class will continue to provide significant diversification benefits at much lower valuations. Moreover, increased geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty and elevated volatility provide fertile ground for alpha generation.

However, as information becomes more widely available, the asset class is now better researched and increasingly efficient. At the same time, market structures are shifting, with local markets now dominated by domestic investors. A changing investment landscape demands a different approach. We see a strong case for a truly active, nimble and contrarian process that exploits market ‘blind spots’ and differences in behaviour between investors to generate asymmetric returns. 

There has been much discussion recently about ways to increase investment into the UK equity market, with both the former and current governments keen to encourage pension funds to allocate more capital domestically, while the FCA seeks to enhance the London Stock Exchange’s appeal for new listings. Having managed UK equity portfolios for over 25 years, recently celebrating two decades of running the TT UK Equity strategy, I wanted to offer some perspectives on the current landscape, what is changing, and why I believe pension funds should be seizing the compelling opportunity that UK equities offer today.

Learn why we believe that now is an ideal time to be allocating to global smid-cap stocks. 

Having invested in EM equities at TT since 2011, many of the opportunities that we currently see in the asset class are among the best we have ever known. In this piece we focus on some of the most compelling. 

TT’s Global SMID-Cap strategy recently celebrated its first anniversary, beating its benchmark by +8.1% gross (+6.9% net) in the year to 28th November 2023. In the three months since, it has added a further +5.4% gross (+5.1% net) of outperformance. We are delighted with these results and are pleased to see that the time we spent constructing our philosophy and process is paying off for our clients. This paper elucidates our approach to delivering Thematic Alpha, wherein we concentrate our team's investment expertise on global themes. It also delves into our Fundamental Alpha, achieved through a disciplined stock-picking framework encompassing Quality, Growth, and Valuation factors. Finally, it discusses Sustainable Alpha, leveraging TT's advanced ESG capabilities to align the portfolio with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. By combining multiple sources of alpha into our investment process, we aim to continue delivering outperformance for our clients.

The investment landscape shifted substantially in 4Q23, with investors moving to price in a monetary policy pivot from the Fed. Our EM equity strategies performed well against a backdrop of falling bond yields. Several of our key calls generated positive alpha, including Brazilian rate-sensitive names, Mexican nearshoring beneficiaries, Argentinian oil stocks, and Korean memory plays. In this piece, we discuss our outlook for the coming year and the positions that we expect to be the key drivers of potential further alpha. 

At the heart of TT's Environmental Solutions Strategy is its commitment to supporting charitable causes, directing capital towards meaningful initiatives that address environmental problems and align with the fund's values. Our innovative fee structure is designed to deliver tangible impact, with one-third of our management fees given to carefully selected environmental charities at no cost to investors. In this video, we explore four distinct charities: Heal Somerset, UWA Oceans Institute, Global Returns Project, and Thousand Year Trust, all of which the strategy actively supports.

2023 has been a perfect storm for environmental equities generally, and for the investable universe of our Environmental Solutions Strategy in particular. But as we head into 2024, many of these headwinds are easing and a far brighter outlook beckons. In the 5-minute audio update below, Co-Portfolio Manager Andrew Raikes outlines why. In this longer written piece, he goes on to illustrate that we have record-high upside in the portfolio by discussing five holdings that we believe could double over the next three years.

2023 has been a perfect storm for environmental equities generally, and our investable universe in particular. But as we head into 2024, many of these headwinds are easing and a far brighter outlook beckons. In this piece we outline why, before illustrating that we have record-high upside in our portfolio by discussing five holdings that we believe could double over the next three years.

The TT Sustainable EM strategy recently celebrated its 1-year anniversary, having successfully generated alpha in challenging market conditions. In this piece we reflect on the strategy’s first year and drill down further into how it beat its benchmark. 

Amid China’s woes, it is easy to forget that Asia offers some of the most exciting structural growth opportunities in the world.

As concerns mount over China’s spluttering economy and its beleaguered property sector, investors are dumping Chinese assets and the central bank has been forced to step up its defence of a sliding renminbi. With this in mind, we thought you would appreciate a brief update on our thoughts about China and its property market specifically, as well as other major Emerging Markets. We continue to believe that developing economies will remain the world’s growth engine over the next couple of years as central banks cut rates to stimulate domestic activity. Nevertheless, the outlook is mixed for markets across the asset class, highlighting the enduring importance of integrating top-down macroeconomic analysis with bottom-up stock selection.  

Latest Chinese economic and market outlook. 

Emerging Market equities have been hovering around a 20-year valuation low versus their Developed Market counterparts for the last 5 years. We believe this is about to change, with the stars aligning for a sustained period of EM outperformance. In the paper below we outline why, before discussing why we expect our EM portfolios to see even stronger performance, with our differentiated process of integrating top-down analysis and bottom-up research yielding some of the most attractive alpha opportunities that we have seen in years.

Unique challenges in recent years have wiped out many competitors, allowing strong UK businesses to cement their leading positions. Despite this increasing dominance, valuations often remain extremely attractive, offering exceptional opportunities for investors

Latest European economic and market outlook. 

Although COP27 made clear progress, most notably in the commitment to establish a loss and damage fund to help pay for climate related damage suffered by vulnerable countries, it also felt like a missed opportunity to advance other key agenda items and strive for even greater ambition in climate policy.

From 6 to 18 November, Heads of State, ministers and negotiators, along with climate activists, mayors, civil society representatives and CEOs will meet in the Egyptian coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh for the world’s largest annual gathering on climate action. COP27 will build on the outcomes of COP26 to deliver action on an array of issues critical to tackling the climate emergency – from urgently reducing greenhouse gas emissions, building resilience and adapting to the inevitable impacts of climate change, to delivering on the commitments to finance climate action in developing countries. Faced with a growing energy crisis, record greenhouse gas concentrations, and increasing extreme weather events, COP27 seeks renewed solidarity between countries, to deliver on the landmark Paris Agreement, for people and the planet. As COP27 fast approaches, we thought it would be an opportune time to reflect on some of the expected outcomes from the conference and the potential opportunities these might present for the themes and sub-themes within the TT Environmental Solutions Strategy’s investable universe.

EM equities are currently experiencing one of their biggest ever corrections amid a perfect storm of tighter monetary policy, slowing global growth and crippling risk aversion. Investors may understandably be considering throwing in the towel. However, we firmly believe that the darkest hour is before the dawn, and that far from selling their holdings, investors should be increasing their allocations. Here are five reasons why.    

The world is not on track to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature targets, and low carbon investing in isolation is unlikely to change this. The magnitude of the environmental crisis facing our planet requires that allocators take bold and creative action. In this paper we set out the case for supplementing a low carbon approach with an environmental solutions strategy, which we believe will grant investors access to the biggest structural growth opportunity of a generation. 

The actions we have taken following the invasion of Ukraine

With COP15 Part 1 and COP26 now over, the conferences have arguably achieved more than expected but less than hoped. To make sense of the potential impact of these events for the planet and investors, Harry Thomas, Co-Portfolio Manager of the TT Environmental Solutions Strategy, recently held a webinar discussion with leading ecology expert Dr Joseph Bull.  

The COP15 and COP26 events have rightly attracted much attention in the press as they are crucial if climate change and biodiversity loss are to be brought under control. At this potential turning point for the world, Harry Thomas, Co-Portfolio Manager of the TT Environmental Solutions Strategy, recently held a discussion with Dr Joseph Bull to learn more about what these events could mean, both for the planet and investors. 

A summary of our recent webinar discussion between China Portfolio Manager Marco Li and Dr Ma Jun, former Chief Economist of the PBOC. 

Covid has blown fiscal holes wide open in many emerging economies, which are now looking to plug the gap by increasing taxation of sectors benefiting from elevated commodity prices. The future of investing in EM mining stocks is more opaque and problematic than at any point since the Global Financial Crisis. Risks abound, but so do opportunities. A focus on geographies with more rational governments is the best place to start. First, get the politics right.

After years of deterioration under Erdogan, Turkey may finally be on the road to recovery, with potential political change and rock-bottom valuations possibly allowing it to recapture the attention of value investors and contrarians.

On 11^th May 2021 the TT Environmental Solutions strategy celebrated its one-year anniversary. In the following piece we detail how we added value over the past year, before discussing why we find the environmental thematic so compelling, even after the rally seen in 2020. Finally, we outline some of the key sub-themes that look particularly promising. 

We discuss the strategy’s genesis, objectives and key differentiators, before outlining why we find environmental equities so exciting looking forward.

With European companies leading the structural shift to ESG investing and countries taking diverging paths out of lockdown, we feel the gap between winners and losers will be stark, giving long/short stock pickers the opportunity to generate meaningful levels of alpha. 

TT International issues a rallying cry to the wider industry calling for Impact Investing 2.0, where sustainable funds give one-third of their management fees to carefully selected environmental charities, as the TT Environmental Solutions strategy does. 

We answer some of the most interesting questions that investors have asked us about the TT Environmental Solutions strategy in recent months. 

With ESG becoming an ever-greater focus for investors, TT’s Head of ESG provides a summary of how we integrate ESG analysis into our process to help generate superior risk-adjusted returns for our clients.

With equity markets having rebounded very strongly, it may be tempting to take profits. However, history tells us that becoming contrarian too early can be a costly mistake. 

Taking stock after an incredibly volatile first half of the year, we discuss the trends that we see ahead in the global economy, paying particular attention to the opportunities and threats for Emerging Markets.

We outline what action our Emerging Markets strategies have been taking in light of the coronavirus.  

The coronavirus has tightened its grip, especially in China, with some 50,000 cases confirmed and the death toll now over 1,000. As the human and economic costs spiral, we assess the potential impact of the virus, outline what the Chinese government is doing to offset this impact, and discuss the investment implications for our portfolios. 

Mike Jennings, Investment Strategist, discusses TT's outlook for the year ahead. 

It is well understood that China’s economy is currently undergoing a great rebalancing as it shifts towards a model of consumption-based growth. However, we believe that many investors fail to grasp the implications of this transformation, which we still see as one of the most powerful and exciting investment themes in the world today. In the piece below, we outline some of the key opportunities that have arisen from China’s ongoing evolution and explain the common mistakes made by investors attempting to profit. 

Who will win?

With global economies and markets looking increasingly late-cycle, we look at investment strategies that could perform well in this new environment. 

We outline the main reasons for our Indian overweight in both our Asia and EM portfolios. 

Corporate debt could be the culprit

Back in 2008, when the global economy was mired in the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, China unleashed a gigantic stimulus package worth 4 trillion yuan. Asia’s pre-eminent economic powerhouse led the world out of the downturn, with its rapid growth sparking a global recovery that helped bring the US and Europe back to life. Ten years after China “saved the world”, it is once again confronted by the threat of flagging growth, exacerbated by trade tensions with the US. With the country standing at an important crossroads, we analyse the risks as well as the opportunities in the world’s second-largest economy, and ask whether now is the right time to invest.   

Oil prices and the dollar are stronger, US Treasury yields are rising, and several EM currencies have seen sharp sell-offs. Many investors are worried that these are warning signs of further distress to come across Emerging Markets. To assess these risks, we have spent the last two weeks travelling to some of the world’s biggest economic trouble spots. The trip has helped to reinforce our view that some countries undoubtedly face further volatility, but widespread systemic weakness across Emerging Markets is unlikely. 

WorldWatch proposes several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

We argue that the global inflation outlook should remain benign in 2018, allowing central banks to tighten monetary policy extremely gradually. When combined with a modest acceleration in global growth, the outlook for equities should remain attractive, most notably in Asia and Emerging Markets. 

With consistent outperformance in the three years since Duncan Robertson took on primary responsibility for TT’s Asia Pacific ex-Japan strategy, we assess the investment opportunities within the asset class and explain how TT’s process seeks to exploit these opportunities.   

Inflation in Japan has been consistently close to zero over the past 20 years. Given the extreme tightness in the labour market, many argue that wages are due to rise and that inflation will subsequently take off.  Our Chief Investment Officer Tim Tacchi does not share this belief and argues in the following paper that labour market tightness in Japan does not necessarily mean rising wages or higher inflation. This is perhaps unsurprising. After all, it is difficult to achieve both reflation and reform at the same time. Reform measures are by their very nature disinflationary as they are intended to improve the productivity of labour and capital. Thankfully, limited wage gains in Japan should mean a benign environment for corporate profitability. Tim’s research was aided by Professor Naohiro Yashiro, Dean of the Global Business Department and Director of the Business Research Institute at Showa Women’s University, Tokyo.

With the Fed recently raising rates for the second time this year, we ask whether Emerging Markets are vulnerable to a tightening cycle in the US. 

With valuations becoming ever more stretched, particularly in the US, our Global Equity team argue that prudence is needed for long-term investors and outline the case for investing in high-quality companies at attractive valuations. 

Following the tumultuous geopolitical events of last year, it is reasonable to see 2017 as the beginning of a new stage in the post-crisis world economy, characterised by rising US rates, protectionism and increasing political tension. Likewise, 2017 could mark a new critical phase in disruptive innovation, which continues to transform industries around the world. In this edition of WorldWatch, we assess the potential impact of several particularly powerful disruptive forces.    

Following a recent research visit, EM Portfolio Manager Rob James assesses the opportunities and challenges facing Vietnam.

Donald Trump's surprise victory is a watershed moment that has important ramifications for many of the world’s financial assets. We consider the global impact of Trump’s potential policies, before outlining how we are positioned to exploit the opportunities created by his victory.

We discuss whether China is becoming less exposed to global growth and trade, before assessing how exposed the rest of the world is to an economic shock in China.

Japan’s banks have struggled to recover from a financial crisis that began in the 1990s. We argue that banks in Europe now face similar challenges following another debt-fuelled bubble.

Emerging Markets have flattered to deceive in recent times. In a piece that featured in LAPF Investments magazine, we outline why the tide may have finally turned for investors in the asset class. 

In this short podcast, Mike Jennings, Investment Strategist, asks Lord Butler of Brockwell what the likely procedure and timetable will be for the UK as it heads towards Brexit. 

We discuss four potential outcomes of the upcoming UK referendum and their implications for the global investor.    

TT discusses what Abenomics Mark Two could mean for Japan’s economy and its equity markets.

When the British people vote in this summer’s referendum on whether or not to leave the EU, their choice will define the UK’s future for generations to come. Opinion polls suggest a victory for the Remain campaign, but this is far from certain as much of the electorate is still undecided. With so much at stake, the referendum is an issue that polarises opinion, nowhere more so than at TT. Below we argue the case for and against Brexit.  

With the TT Global Emerging Markets strategy having recently reached its fifth anniversary, we take stock of how the asset class has performed, how we have performed, and how we see the future. 

Global equities have suffered their worst start to a year since the Great Depression, credit markets have seized up, and there has been a rush towards traditional safe havens. Investors seem petrified. But of what? And, crucially, will the market turmoil persist?

The Chancellor has announced plans to pool the assets of UK Local Government Pension Schemes with the stated goal of “delivering significantly reduced costs while maintaining overall investment performance.” Whilst this should be encouraged in principle, we at TT worry that it is cost that is being primarily targeted and not value.

After a recent research visit, Tim Tacchi explains why a soft landing in China is achievable.

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

After a recent research visit, EM Portfolio Manager Rob James discusses the opportunities and challenges facing Pakistan.

TT discusses whether investors are right to be worried about US rate rises and a Chinese slowdown, and considers which is the bigger risk. 

TT addresses the most pressing concerns about Emerging Markets and suggests how best to navigate the asset class in these uncertain times.

TT explains the recent bond market ructions before considering the potential impact on equities.

TT considers whether the reform-minded government of Narendra Modi will be the catalyst for the world’s largest democracy to become a major engine of global economic growth.

Amid signs that the eurozone economy has turned a corner, TT considers whether European stocks can continue to outperform those in the US this year.

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

We look at the potential winners and losers from the recent slide in oil prices. 

Given China’s twin excesses of overinvestment funded by mounting debt, we ask whether the world’s second-largest economy is approaching its “Minsky Moment”.

We discuss how emerging markets are racing to implement structural reforms and the challenges and opportunities this presents for investors.  

TT considers a recent string of poor data in the Euro area and asks what opportunities this may throw up.

We take a look at what has caused the vicious rotation in developed equity markets this year and how we expect it to play out.  

TT takes a trip around the world to explore where clouds of uncertainty are gathering on the horizon. 

It has become very consensual to be bearish on Emerging Market (“EM”) equities, but with a nascent synchronised uptick in the world economy in prospect for 2014 and with valuations for EM equities at historic lows, the risk/reward is becoming more finely balanced. We explore the main themes that will dominate markets in 2014, why the opportunities for EM investors are becoming greater and why long-term investors should begin the process of building exposure.

Active Share is a risk management measure that has been around and used for some time.  Recently, however, it has grown in prominence and is now used as widely, certainly within Europe, as tracking error when it comes to estimating and understanding the risk profile of an actively managed portfolio against its benchmark.  The aim of this paper is to discuss Active Share and its application in risk management at TT International.

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Rob James and our Global Emerging Markets (“GEM”) team examine how consumption patterns are changing in Emerging Markets and the opportunities this is providing for investors as we look forward over the next decade and beyond.

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Martin Pluck, TT Partner, takes on the persona of a German Politics Professor travelling to Poland in 2020 to lecture on changes in the Eurozone. The paper looks at some of the changes that could occur over the next few years.

What happens next? Wouldn’t it be nice to know what events and surprises will end up filling those pristine blank pages in your 2013 diary? Professional forecasters (or ‘futurists’ as they prefer to be known) will tell you that the one thing you should never do with the future is predict it – but here at WorldWatch we know that the temptation to forecast the future is irresistible (and as Oscar Wilde said, the only way to get rid of temptation is to give in to it). It may be that not everything we forecast in our 2013 diary will come to pass, but some of it surely will …

The world is more reliant than ever on continued growth from that much feted group of economies known collectively as the BRICs. Sadly, they have proved just as fallible as their fusty old developed world counterparts. Now they need a bit of new impetus to keep themselves going. Big Bang Mk. II then? Well no, but changes aplenty and plenty to be positive about nonetheless

Is there an end in sight to the crisis that has gripped both real and financial economies for the last five years? Unfortunately, no. But the shape of the crisis is changing. The troubles of the eurozone have been stabilised, for now. The global banking system is much more resilient than it was. And economies that should be growing – in emerging Asia, eastern Europe, and Africa – are growing. But the fear focus has shifted as markets worry about the threat from elsewhere. 

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Adrienne Giliomee, TT’s Financials Analyst, explains why she believes it is still possible to value bank stocks despite unprecedented levels of volatility and uncertainty.

There is more than a little bit of the contrarian in everyone. No one wants to be just a member of the crowd. Most investors would like to be able to claim moments of unusual insight, when their conviction that market consensus was simply wrong turned out to be simply right. For the rewards, when a contrarian stance proves correct, can be substantial.

When bad things are in the diary and also in the price – that is just the sort of time when investors start thinking markets might start to surge. After all, you only need one big bad thing not to happen for the mood to change. Euro break-up, US fiscal cliff, China crash, all bad things that might not happen – plenty of scope there for an upside surprise, you might think. So how big is the upside risk? Answer: it is significant, but don’t hold your breath.

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, we feature the views of Rob James and our Global Emerging Markets (GEM) team. They manage our GEM equity strategy, a high-conviction portfolio of 40-60 stocks selected through a process of fundamental, bottom-up analysis combined with an integrated top-down macro framework.

With the spring rally over, investors everywhere are asking whether this is a pause or the beginning of something darker. The recovery is losing momentum. European sovereign debt is a growing worry. But in the big picture tail risks are much reduced, and that means limited downside.

Last year was terrible for both developing and developed markets.  But the world’s growth economies are still growing, and few are growing as fast or as reliably as the economies of Africa.  Adventurous investors are getting interested in the world’s oldest continent. Are they on the right track? 

The arrival of the New Year diary should always be a moment for reflection. Whatever transpired in the year just past, good or bad, those blank pages for the year to come seem to offer the opportunity for change, for renewal: new people, new places, new ideas. A good thing too, you might say. The last twelve months have been unusually eventful, and many of those events have been ones that one might prefer to forget - in the hope that 2012 is going to be a lot, lot better.

Is there really too much debt in the world economy? Not so long ago this question was seldom asked. Today the word on the street is that debt is bad. There is too much debt, too much of it is the wrong sort, and too much is in the wrong places. Right or wrong? 

It is an understatement to say that markets everywhere have been taken by surprise by the extent of the sentiment reversal over the last six weeks. We have witnessed a rare and brutal revision of basic assumptions – and it is still continuing. So what is driving the current ‘reset’, where does it end, and how should investors position? 

Sovereign debt is clearly the critical issue of the moment. In the last few weeks we have seen Europe’s debt crisis morph from what seemed like a package of local issues to what looks suspiciously like a systemic threat. The survival of the eurozone is increasingly a matter for discussion, and the implications are nightmarish. Yet the question remains: why?

Today many if not most investors still hope and expect that emerging market growth is going to save their bacon – today, tomorrow, and for quite a long time to come. The assumption is that the big emerging markets can stand the strains of ultra rapid growth without going haywire. Are they right? WorldWatch has been to India to ask that question.

The policy cycle has turned, the macro-economic newsflow cycle has turned, and the corporate profits boom is set to ease back. Above all, oil remains high, a big medium-term threat to markets and economies. So what does this mean for equities? 

The earthquake that struck off the coast of Japan on March 11 was a human catastrophe that commands sympathy, support and respect. Well over 10,000 are dead, half a million people are displaced, and towns and villages over a long stretch of coast have been obliterated. That is the immediate cost. What of the long-term impact on Japan, the world’s second-largest developed economy?

The Middle East is in turmoil. First Tunisia, then Egypt: the west is losing its friends in the region rather fast, and markets are beginning to get rattled.  What comes next?