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2017

White Paper

Papers The case for Asian equities in 2017 and beyond

10 August 2017

We believe that Asian equities represent an excellent investment opportunity for several key reasons. Firstly, Asian GDP growth is superior not only to Developed Markets, but also to other Emerging Markets. Growth opportunities are especially compelling in countries such as Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines, all of which have particularly dynamic economies with young populations. In addition to favourable demographics, Asia is the key global beneficiary of lower oil prices as its ratio of net oil imports to GDP is the highest in the world. Finally, Asian equities as a whole remain 17% ‘cheap’ relative to their developed world counterparts on a price-earnings metric, and 27% ‘cheap’ on a price-book basis. With consistent outperformance in the three years since Duncan Robertson took on primary responsibility for TT’s Asia Pacific ex-Japan strategy, we assess the investment opportunities within the asset class and explain how TT’s process seeks to exploit these opportunities.   

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Outlook

Market International Outlook

8 August 2017

Latest International economic and market outlook. 

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Outlook

Market Emerging Markets (Core) Outlook

8 August 2017

Latest Emerging Markets (Core) economic and market outlook. 

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Outlook

Market Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) Outlook

8 August 2017

Latest Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) economic and market outlook. 

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Outlook

Market Asia Outlook

8 August 2017

Latest Asian economic and market outlook. 

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Outlook

Market European Outlook

8 August 2017

Latest European economic and market outlook. 

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Outlook

Market UK Outlook

8 August 2017

Latest UK economic and market outlook. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Wages and inflation in Japan: the big freeze

4 August 2017

Inflation in Japan has been consistently close to zero over the past 20 years. Given the extreme tightness in the labour market, many argue that wages are due to rise and that inflation will subsequently take off.  Our Chief Investment Officer Tim Tacchi does not share this belief and argues in the following paper that labour market tightness in Japan does not necessarily mean rising wages or higher inflation. This is perhaps unsurprising. After all, it is difficult to achieve both reflation and reform at the same time. Reform measures are by their very nature disinflationary as they are intended to improve the productivity of labour and capital. Thankfully, limited wage gains in Japan should mean a benign environment for corporate profitability. Tim’s research was aided by Professor Naohiro Yashiro, Dean of the Global Business Department and Director of the Business Research Institute at Showa Women’s University, Tokyo.

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WorldWatch

Globe Are Emerging Markets vulnerable to rising US interest rates?

15 June 2017

With the Fed recently raising rates for the second time this year, we ask whether Emerging Markets are vulnerable to a tightening cycle in the US. 

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White Paper

Papers The case for quality investing

10 May 2017

With valuations becoming ever more stretched, particularly in the US, our Global Equity team argue that prudence is needed for long-term investors and outline the case for investing in high-quality companies at attractive valuations. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Beware! Disruption ahead

24 March 2017

Following the tumultuous geopolitical events of last year, it is reasonable to see 2017 as the beginning of a new stage in the post-crisis world economy, characterised by rising US rates, protectionism and increasing political tension. Likewise, 2017 could mark a new critical phase in disruptive innovation, which continues to transform industries around the world. In this edition of WorldWatch, we assess the potential impact of several particularly powerful disruptive forces.    

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White Paper

Papers Vietnam: the next Asian tiger?

31 January 2017

Following a recent research visit, Niall Paul, Head of Emerging Markets, assesses the opportunities and challenges facing Vietnam.

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2016

WorldWatch

Globe Donald Trump: the good, the bad and the ugly

28 November 2016

Donald Trump's surprise victory is a watershed moment that has important ramifications for many of the world’s financial assets. We consider the global impact of Trump’s potential policies, before outlining how we are positioned to exploit the opportunities created by his victory.

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White Paper

Papers China and global growth: an uneasy symbiosis

3 November 2016

We discuss whether China is becoming less exposed to global growth and trade, before assessing how exposed the rest of the world is to an economic shock in China.

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White Paper

Papers European banks: turning Japanese

27 September 2016

Japan’s banks have struggled to recover from a financial crisis that began in the 1990s. We argue that banks in Europe now face similar challenges following another debt-fuelled bubble.

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WorldWatch

Globe Emerging Markets - the next opportunity

6 September 2016

Emerging Markets have flattered to deceive in recent times. In a piece that featured in LAPF Investments magazine, we outline why the tide may have finally turned for investors in the asset class. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Podcast - the procedure and timetable for Brexit according to Lord Butler of Brockwell

30 June 2016

In this short podcast, Mike Jennings, Investment Strategist, asks Lord Butler of Brockwell what the likely procedure and timetable will be for the UK as it heads towards Brexit. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Brexit – not just a binary decision

21 June 2016

We discuss four potential outcomes of the upcoming UK referendum and their implications for the global investor.    

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White Paper

Papers Abenomics 2.0: a bigger bazooka

27 May 2016

TT discusses what Abenomics Mark Two could mean for Japan’s economy and its equity markets.

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WorldWatch

Globe The case for and against Brexit

1 April 2016

When the British people vote in this summer’s referendum on whether or not to leave the EU, their choice will define the UK’s future for generations to come. Opinion polls suggest a victory for the Remain campaign, but this is far from certain as much of the electorate is still undecided. With so much at stake, the referendum is an issue that polarises opinion, nowhere more so than at TT. Below we argue the case for and against Brexit.  

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White Paper

Papers The TT Global Emerging Markets Strategy – 5 years in

1 April 2016

With the TT Global Emerging Markets strategy having recently reached its fifth anniversary, we take stock of how the asset class has performed, how we have performed, and how we see the future. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Market turmoil: the price of uncertainty

26 February 2016

Global equities have suffered their worst start to a year since the Great Depression, credit markets have seized up, and there has been a rush towards traditional safe havens. Investors seem petrified. But of what? And, crucially, will the market turmoil persist?

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White Paper

Papers UK Local Government Pension Scheme reform – opportunities and dangers for pensioners

12 February 2016

The Chancellor has announced plans to pool the assets of UK Local Government Pension Schemes with the stated goal of “delivering significantly reduced costs while maintaining overall investment performance.” Whilst this should be encouraged in principle, we at TT worry that it is cost that is being primarily targeted and not value.

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WorldWatch

Globe A week in China: soft landing still possible

2 February 2016

After a recent research visit, TT’s Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Investment Officer explain why a soft landing in China is achievable.

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2015

WorldWatch

Globe TT's surprises for 2016

1 December 2015

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe A week in Pakistan: old problems, new hope

27 November 2015

After a recent research visit, TT’s Head of Emerging Markets discusses the opportunities and challenges facing Pakistan.

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WorldWatch

Globe US rate rises amid a Chinese slowdown: the Big Bang?

28 September 2015

TT discusses whether investors are right to be worried about US rate rises and a Chinese slowdown, and considers which is the bigger risk. 

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White Paper

Papers Navigating Emerging Markets in a volatile world

28 August 2015

TT addresses the most pressing concerns about Emerging Markets and suggests how best to navigate the asset class in these uncertain times.

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WorldWatch

Globe Bond market tremors: tectonic shift in economic expectations?

1 June 2015

TT explains the recent bond market ructions before considering the potential impact on equities.

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White Paper

Papers On the dragon’s tail: will India become the next China?

21 April 2015

TT considers whether the reform-minded government of Narendra Modi will be the catalyst for the world’s largest democracy to become a major engine of global economic growth.

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WorldWatch

Globe Europe’s economy appears to be warming up, but is this cold comfort for investors?

2 March 2015

Amid signs that the eurozone economy has turned a corner, TT considers whether European stocks can continue to outperform those in the US this year.

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2014

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2015

17 December 2014

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Cheaper oil: boon or bane?

1 December 2014

We look at the potential winners and losers from the recent slide in oil prices. 

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WorldWatch

Globe China’s Minsky Moment?

6 October 2014

Given China’s twin excesses of overinvestment funded by mounting debt, we ask whether the world’s second-largest economy is approaching its “Minsky Moment”.

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WorldWatch

Globe Emerging markets: picking up the baton

25 September 2014

We discuss how emerging markets are racing to implement structural reforms and the challenges and opportunities this presents for investors.  

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White Paper

Papers Europe – the road ahead

18 September 2014

TT considers a recent string of poor data in the Euro area and asks what opportunities this may throw up.

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WorldWatch

Globe Stormy seas

25 May 2014

We take a look at what has caused the vicious rotation in developed equity markets this year and how we expect it to play out.  

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White Paper

Papers Dark cloud, silver lining

8 April 2014

TT takes a trip around the world to explore where clouds of uncertainty are gathering on the horizon. 

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2013

WorldWatch

Globe Opportunity knocks for Emerging Markets

1 December 2013

It has become very consensual to be bearish on Emerging Market (“EM”) equities, but with a nascent synchronised uptick in the world economy in prospect for 2014 and with valuations for EM equities at historic lows, the risk/reward is becoming more finely balanced. We explore the main themes that will dominate markets in 2014, why the opportunities for EM investors are becoming greater and why long-term investors should begin the process of building exposure.

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White Paper

Papers Active Share – dragging closet indexers out of the closet

14 November 2013

Active Share is a risk management measure that has been around and used for some time.  Recently, however, it has grown in prominence and is now used as widely, certainly within Europe, as tracking error when it comes to estimating and understanding the risk profile of an actively managed portfolio against its benchmark.  The aim of this paper is to discuss Active Share and its application in risk management at TT International.

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White Paper

Papers EM consumption – riding the Second Wave

1 July 2013
In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Niall Paul and our Global Emerging Markets (“GEM”) team examine how consumption patterns are changing in Emerging Markets and the opportunities this is providing for investors as we look forward over the next decade and beyond.

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White Paper

Papers Europe 2020

3 April 2013

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Martin Pluck, TT Partner, takes on the persona of a German Politics Professor travelling to Poland in 2020 to lecture on changes in the Eurozone. The paper looks at some of the changes that could occur over the next few years.


2012

WorldWatch

Globe Next year's diary

13 December 2012

What happens next? Wouldn’t it be nice to know what events and surprises will end up filling those pristine blank pages in your 2013 diary? Professional forecasters (or ‘futurists’ as they prefer to be known) will tell you that the one thing you should never do with the future is predict it – but here at WorldWatch we know that the temptation to forecast the future is irresistible (and as Oscar Wilde said, the only way to get rid of temptation is to give in to it). It may be that not everything we forecast in our 2013 diary will come to pass, but some of it surely will …

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WorldWatch

Globe The Times They Are A Changin’… for the BRICs

1 December 2012

The world is more reliant than ever on continued growth from that much feted group of economies known collectively as the BRICs. Sadly, they have proved just as fallible as their fusty old developed world counterparts. Now they need a bit of new impetus to keep themselves going. Big Bang Mk. II then? Well no, but changes aplenty and plenty to be positive about nonetheless

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WorldWatch

Globe The views from Mars

1 October 2012

Is there an end in sight to the crisis that has gripped both real and financial economies for the last five years? Unfortunately, no. But the shape of the crisis is changing. The troubles of the eurozone have been stabilised, for now. The global banking system is much more resilient than it was. And economies that should be growing – in emerging Asia, eastern Europe, and Africa – are growing. But the fear focus has shifted as markets worry about the threat from elsewhere. 

White Paper

Papers Taming the beast: a fresh perspective on valuing banks

1 October 2012

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Adrienne Giliomee, TT’s Financials Analyst, explains why she believes it is still possible to value bank stocks despite unprecedented levels of volatility and uncertainty.

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WorldWatch

Globe Beware the contrarian within

1 August 2012

There is more than a little bit of the contrarian in everyone. No one wants to be just a member of the crowd. Most investors would like to be able to claim moments of unusual insight, when their conviction that market consensus was simply wrong turned out to be simply right. For the rewards, when a contrarian stance proves correct, can be substantial.

WorldWatch

Globe Curb your expectations

1 July 2012

When bad things are in the diary and also in the price – that is just the sort of time when investors start thinking markets might start to surge. After all, you only need one big bad thing not to happen for the mood to change. Euro break-up, US fiscal cliff, China crash, all bad things that might not happen – plenty of scope there for an upside surprise, you might think. So how big is the upside risk? Answer: it is significant, but don’t hold your breath.

White Paper

Papers Cluster analysis: it’s more than child’s play

15 May 2012
In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, we feature the views of Niall Paul and our Global Emerging Markets (GEM) team. They manage our GEM equity strategy, a high-conviction portfolio of 40-60 stocks selected through a process of fundamental, bottom-up analysis combined with an integrated top-down macro framework.

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WorldWatch

Globe Actually, the bad news comes later

2 May 2012

With the spring rally over, investors everywhere are asking whether this is a pause or the beginning of something darker. The recovery is losing momentum. European sovereign debt is a growing worry. But in the big picture tail risks are much reduced, and that means limited downside.

WorldWatch

Globe The invisible continent

1 March 2012

Last year was terrible for both developing and developed markets.  But the world’s growth economies are still growing, and few are growing as fast or as reliably as the economies of Africa.  Adventurous investors are getting interested in the world’s oldest continent. Are they on the right track? 

WorldWatch

Globe TT's 2012

2 January 2012

The arrival of the New Year diary should always be a moment for reflection. Whatever transpired in the year just past, good or bad, those blank pages for the year to come seem to offer the opportunity for change, for renewal: new people, new places, new ideas. A good thing too, you might say. The last twelve months have been unusually eventful, and many of those events have been ones that one might prefer to forget - in the hope that 2012 is going to be a lot, lot better.

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2011

WorldWatch

Globe The borrowers

1 November 2011

Is there really too much debt in the world economy? Not so long ago this question was seldom asked. Today the word on the street is that debt is bad. There is too much debt, too much of it is the wrong sort, and too much is in the wrong places. Right or wrong? 

WorldWatch

Globe The big reset

1 September 2011

It is an understatement to say that markets everywhere have been taken by surprise by the extent of the sentiment reversal over the last six weeks. We have witnessed a rare and brutal revision of basic assumptions – and it is still continuing. So what is driving the current ‘reset’, where does it end, and how should investors position? 

WorldWatch

Globe Europe’s nightmare

1 August 2011

Sovereign debt is clearly the critical issue of the moment. In the last few weeks we have seen Europe’s debt crisis morph from what seemed like a package of local issues to what looks suspiciously like a systemic threat. The survival of the eurozone is increasingly a matter for discussion, and the implications are nightmarish. Yet the question remains: why?

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WorldWatch

Globe The lesson of India

1 June 2011

Today many if not most investors still hope and expect that emerging market growth is going to save their bacon – today, tomorrow, and for quite a long time to come. The assumption is that the big emerging markets can stand the strains of ultra rapid growth without going haywire. Are they right? WorldWatch has been to India to ask that question.

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WorldWatch

Globe Oil is key, again

1 May 2011

The policy cycle has turned, the macro-economic newsflow cycle has turned, and the corporate profits boom is set to ease back. Above all, oil remains high, a big medium-term threat to markets and economies. So what does this mean for equities? 

WorldWatch

Globe Aftershocks in Japan

1 April 2011

The earthquake that struck off the coast of Japan on March 11 was a human catastrophe that commands sympathy, support and respect. Well over 10,000 are dead, half a million people are displaced, and towns and villages over a long stretch of coast have been obliterated. That is the immediate cost. What of the long-term impact on Japan, the world’s second-largest developed economy?

WorldWatch

Globe The Middle East

1 February 2011

The Middle East is in turmoil. First Tunisia, then Egypt: the west is losing its friends in the region rather fast, and markets are beginning to get rattled.  What comes next?