Matt Clark

Market Outlook

ACWI ex-US Outlook

Outlook

Latest ACWI ex-US economic and market outlook. 

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The escalation of tensions in the Middle East over recent weeks has understandably raised concerns around energy prices, global growth and broader risk sentiment.

At this stage we have made few changes to the portfolio as a result of the war. Whilst there is a high degree of uncertainty on the path from here, we note several factors that point to a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump clearly wants to declare victory and move on. The war is polling badly and hitting him further on the cost-of-living narrative. China’s involvement in pushing Iran to the negotiating table is significant – China buys a significant portion of Iranian crude and supplies components to the Iranian military industrial complex. The involvement of large Muslim majority nations such as Pakistan and Turkey in mediation helps. Iran also needs to sell oil. It therefore cannot afford to antagonise the whole world by shutting the Strait of Hormuz for too long. The position of blocking the Strait becomes harder to justify as military conflict winds down – especially since other advanced nations steadfastly refused to join the US in the war.

If we are correct in the above analysis, then we would expect oil prices to fall, and the USD to correct. This should be a strong positive for our portfolio, as Europe and Asia would be key beneficiaries of this environment.

With the war leading to a further sell off in India, we are seeing value in that market to a greater degree than we have done in a long time. We have recently added to our positions such as Lemon Tree Hotels, and India remains a significant overweight for the fund.

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Nothing in this document constitutes or should be treated as investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security or other investment. TT is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

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