Members of our Ideas Factory share their latest investment thinking through three publications:
‘WorldWatch’ provides timely insight into topical macroeconomic and geopolitical issues from around the world.
‘White Papers’ offer in-depth analysis of the ideas and themes that drive our investments.
'Outlook' is a regular update on how our investment experts see markets and economies.
WorldWatch proposes several potential investment surprises for the year ahead.
With the Fed recently raising rates for the second time this year, we ask whether Emerging Markets are vulnerable to a tightening cycle in the US.
Following the tumultuous geopolitical events of last year, it is reasonable to see 2017 as the beginning of a new stage in the post-crisis world economy, characterised by rising US rates, protectionism and increasing political tension. Likewise, 2017 could mark a new critical phase in disruptive innovation, which continues to transform industries around the world. In this edition of WorldWatch, we assess the potential impact of several particularly powerful disruptive forces.
Donald Trump's surprise victory is a watershed moment that has important ramifications for many of the world’s financial assets. We consider the global impact of Trump’s potential policies, before outlining how we are positioned to exploit the opportunities created by his victory.
Emerging Markets have flattered to deceive in recent times. In a piece that featured in LAPF Investments magazine, we outline why the tide may have finally turned for investors in the asset class.
When the British people vote in this summer’s referendum on whether or not to leave the EU, their choice will define the UK’s future for generations to come. Opinion polls suggest a victory for the Remain campaign, but this is far from certain as much of the electorate is still undecided. With so much at stake, the referendum is an issue that polarises opinion, nowhere more so than at TT. Below we argue the case for and against Brexit.
Back in 2008, when the global economy was mired in the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, China unleashed a gigantic stimulus package worth 4 trillion yuan. Asia’s pre-eminent economic powerhouse led the world out of the downturn, with its rapid growth sparking a global recovery that helped bring the US and Europe back to life. Ten years after China “saved the world”, it is once again confronted by the threat of flagging growth, exacerbated by trade tensions with the US. With the country standing at an important crossroads, we analyse the risks as well as the opportunities in the world’s second-largest economy, and ask whether now is the right time to invest.
Oil prices and the dollar are stronger, US Treasury yields are rising, and several EM currencies have seen sharp sell-offs. Many investors are worried that these are warning signs of further distress to come across Emerging Markets. To assess these risks, we have spent the last two weeks travelling to some of the world’s biggest economic trouble spots. The trip has helped to reinforce our view that some countries undoubtedly face further volatility, but widespread systemic weakness across Emerging Markets is unlikely.
We argue that the
global inflation outlook should remain benign in 2018, allowing central banks
to tighten monetary policy extremely gradually. When combined with a modest
acceleration in global growth, the outlook for equities should remain
attractive, most notably in Asia and Emerging Markets.
With consistent outperformance in the three years since Duncan Robertson took on primary responsibility for TT’s Asia Pacific ex-Japan strategy, we assess the investment opportunities within the asset class and explain how TT’s process seeks to exploit these opportunities.
With valuations becoming ever more stretched, particularly in the US, our Global Equity team argue that prudence is needed for long-term investors and outline the case for investing in high-quality companies at attractive valuations.
Following a recent research visit, Niall Paul, Head of Emerging Markets, assesses the opportunities and challenges facing Vietnam.
Latest International economic and market outlook.
Latest Emerging Markets (Core) economic and market outlook.
Latest Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) economic and market outlook.
Latest Asian economic and market outlook.
Latest Chinese economic and market outlook.
Latest European economic and market outlook.
Latest UK economic and market outlook.