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Niall Paul

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2020

Outlook

Market International Outlook

12 July 2020

Latest International economic and market outlook. 

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Outlook

Market Emerging Markets (Core) Outlook

12 July 2020

Latest Emerging Markets (Core) economic and market outlook. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Investment implications of the coronavirus

12 February 2020

The coronavirus has tightened its grip, especially in China, with some 50,000 cases confirmed and the death toll now over 1,000. As the human and economic costs spiral, we assess the potential impact of the virus, outline what the Chinese government is doing to offset this impact, and discuss the investment implications for our portfolios. 

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2018

White Paper

Papers Summary of our latest Emerging Markets Research Visit

30 May 2018

Oil prices and the dollar are stronger, US Treasury yields are rising, and several EM currencies have seen sharp sell-offs. Many investors are worried that these are warning signs of further distress to come across Emerging Markets. To assess these risks, we have spent the last two weeks travelling to some of the world’s biggest economic trouble spots. The trip has helped to reinforce our view that some countries undoubtedly face further volatility, but widespread systemic weakness across Emerging Markets is unlikely. 

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2017

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2018

8 December 2017

WorldWatch proposes several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Are Emerging Markets vulnerable to rising US interest rates?

15 June 2017

With the Fed recently raising rates for the second time this year, we ask whether Emerging Markets are vulnerable to a tightening cycle in the US. 

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White Paper

Papers Vietnam: the next Asian tiger?

31 January 2017

Following a recent research visit, Niall Paul, Head of Emerging Markets, assesses the opportunities and challenges facing Vietnam.

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2016

White Paper

Papers The TT Global Emerging Markets Strategy – 5 years in

1 April 2016

With the TT Global Emerging Markets strategy having recently reached its fifth anniversary, we take stock of how the asset class has performed, how we have performed, and how we see the future. 

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WorldWatch

Globe A week in China: soft landing still possible

2 February 2016

After a recent research visit, TT’s Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Investment Officer explain why a soft landing in China is achievable.

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2015

WorldWatch

Globe TT's surprises for 2016

1 December 2015

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe A week in Pakistan: old problems, new hope

27 November 2015

After a recent research visit, TT’s Head of Emerging Markets discusses the opportunities and challenges facing Pakistan.

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2014

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2015

17 December 2014

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe China’s Minsky Moment?

6 October 2014

Given China’s twin excesses of overinvestment funded by mounting debt, we ask whether the world’s second-largest economy is approaching its “Minsky Moment”.

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WorldWatch

Globe Emerging markets: picking up the baton

25 September 2014

We discuss how emerging markets are racing to implement structural reforms and the challenges and opportunities this presents for investors.  

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WorldWatch

Globe Stormy seas

25 May 2014

We take a look at what has caused the vicious rotation in developed equity markets this year and how we expect it to play out.  

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2013

WorldWatch

Globe Opportunity knocks for Emerging Markets

1 December 2013

It has become very consensual to be bearish on Emerging Market (“EM”) equities, but with a nascent synchronised uptick in the world economy in prospect for 2014 and with valuations for EM equities at historic lows, the risk/reward is becoming more finely balanced. We explore the main themes that will dominate markets in 2014, why the opportunities for EM investors are becoming greater and why long-term investors should begin the process of building exposure.

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White Paper

Papers EM consumption – riding the Second Wave

1 July 2013
In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Niall Paul and our Global Emerging Markets (“GEM”) team examine how consumption patterns are changing in Emerging Markets and the opportunities this is providing for investors as we look forward over the next decade and beyond.

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2012

WorldWatch

Globe Next year's diary

13 December 2012

What happens next? Wouldn’t it be nice to know what events and surprises will end up filling those pristine blank pages in your 2013 diary? Professional forecasters (or ‘futurists’ as they prefer to be known) will tell you that the one thing you should never do with the future is predict it – but here at WorldWatch we know that the temptation to forecast the future is irresistible (and as Oscar Wilde said, the only way to get rid of temptation is to give in to it). It may be that not everything we forecast in our 2013 diary will come to pass, but some of it surely will …

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WorldWatch

Globe The Times They Are A Changin’… for the BRICs

1 December 2012

The world is more reliant than ever on continued growth from that much feted group of economies known collectively as the BRICs. Sadly, they have proved just as fallible as their fusty old developed world counterparts. Now they need a bit of new impetus to keep themselves going. Big Bang Mk. II then? Well no, but changes aplenty and plenty to be positive about nonetheless

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White Paper

Papers Cluster analysis: it’s more than child’s play

15 May 2012
In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, we feature the views of Niall Paul and our Global Emerging Markets (GEM) team. They manage our GEM equity strategy, a high-conviction portfolio of 40-60 stocks selected through a process of fundamental, bottom-up analysis combined with an integrated top-down macro framework.

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WorldWatch

Globe TT's 2012

2 January 2012

The arrival of the New Year diary should always be a moment for reflection. Whatever transpired in the year just past, good or bad, those blank pages for the year to come seem to offer the opportunity for change, for renewal: new people, new places, new ideas. A good thing too, you might say. The last twelve months have been unusually eventful, and many of those events have been ones that one might prefer to forget - in the hope that 2012 is going to be a lot, lot better.

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2011

WorldWatch

Globe The lesson of India

1 June 2011

Today many if not most investors still hope and expect that emerging market growth is going to save their bacon – today, tomorrow, and for quite a long time to come. The assumption is that the big emerging markets can stand the strains of ultra rapid growth without going haywire. Are they right? WorldWatch has been to India to ask that question.

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