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Rob James

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2024

Outlook

Market Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) Outlook

10 January 2024

Latest Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) economic and market outlook. 

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Outlook

Market Emerging Markets (Core) Outlook

10 January 2024

Latest Emerging Markets (Core) economic and market outlook. 

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WorldWatch

Globe EM outlook for 2024

7 January 2024

The investment landscape shifted substantially in 4Q23, with investors moving to price in a monetary policy pivot from the Fed. Our EM equity strategies performed well against a backdrop of falling bond yields. Several of our key calls generated positive alpha, including Brazilian rate-sensitive names, Mexican nearshoring beneficiaries, Argentinian oil stocks, and Korean memory plays. In this piece, we discuss our outlook for the coming year and the positions that we expect to be the key drivers of potential further alpha. 

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2022

WorldWatch

Globe Five Reasons to Buy More EM Equities

23 August 2022

EM equities are currently experiencing one of their biggest ever corrections amid a perfect storm of tighter monetary policy, slowing global growth and crippling risk aversion. Investors may understandably be considering throwing in the towel. However, we firmly believe that the darkest hour is before the dawn, and that far from selling their holdings, investors should be increasing their allocations. Here are five reasons why.    

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WorldWatch

Globe Global Emerging Markets Strategy Ukraine update

24 February 2022

The actions we have taken following the invasion of Ukraine

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2021

WorldWatch

Globe EM Miners: Time to Dig Deep

15 September 2021

Covid has blown fiscal holes wide open in many emerging economies, which are now looking to plug the gap by increasing taxation of sectors benefiting from elevated commodity prices. The future of investing in EM mining stocks is more opaque and problematic than at any point since the Global Financial Crisis. Risks abound, but so do opportunities. A focus on geographies with more rational governments is the best place to start. First, get the politics right.

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WorldWatch

Globe Turkey: the Sick Man of Emerging Europe out of Intensive Care

21 July 2021

After years of deterioration under Erdogan, Turkey may finally be on the road to recovery, with potential political change and rock-bottom valuations possibly allowing it to recapture the attention of value investors and contrarians.

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2020

WorldWatch

Globe Investment implications of the coronavirus

12 February 2020

The coronavirus has tightened its grip, especially in China, with some 50,000 cases confirmed and the death toll now over 1,000. As the human and economic costs spiral, we assess the potential impact of the virus, outline what the Chinese government is doing to offset this impact, and discuss the investment implications for our portfolios. 

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2018

White Paper

Papers Summary of our latest Emerging Markets Research Visit

30 May 2018

Oil prices and the dollar are stronger, US Treasury yields are rising, and several EM currencies have seen sharp sell-offs. Many investors are worried that these are warning signs of further distress to come across Emerging Markets. To assess these risks, we have spent the last two weeks travelling to some of the world’s biggest economic trouble spots. The trip has helped to reinforce our view that some countries undoubtedly face further volatility, but widespread systemic weakness across Emerging Markets is unlikely. 

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2017

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2018

8 December 2017

WorldWatch proposes several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Are Emerging Markets vulnerable to rising US interest rates?

15 June 2017

With the Fed recently raising rates for the second time this year, we ask whether Emerging Markets are vulnerable to a tightening cycle in the US. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Beware! Disruption ahead

24 March 2017

Following the tumultuous geopolitical events of last year, it is reasonable to see 2017 as the beginning of a new stage in the post-crisis world economy, characterised by rising US rates, protectionism and increasing political tension. Likewise, 2017 could mark a new critical phase in disruptive innovation, which continues to transform industries around the world. In this edition of WorldWatch, we assess the potential impact of several particularly powerful disruptive forces.    

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White Paper

Papers Vietnam: the next Asian tiger?

31 January 2017

Following a recent research visit, EM Portfolio Manager Rob James assesses the opportunities and challenges facing Vietnam.

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2016

White Paper

Papers The TT Global Emerging Markets Strategy – 5 years in

1 April 2016

With the TT Global Emerging Markets strategy having recently reached its fifth anniversary, we take stock of how the asset class has performed, how we have performed, and how we see the future. 

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2015

WorldWatch

Globe TT's surprises for 2016

1 December 2015

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe A week in Pakistan: old problems, new hope

27 November 2015

After a recent research visit, EM Portfolio Manager Rob James discusses the opportunities and challenges facing Pakistan.

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2014

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2015

17 December 2014

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Emerging markets: picking up the baton

25 September 2014

We discuss how emerging markets are racing to implement structural reforms and the challenges and opportunities this presents for investors.  

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2013

WorldWatch

Globe Opportunity knocks for Emerging Markets

1 December 2013

It has become very consensual to be bearish on Emerging Market (“EM”) equities, but with a nascent synchronised uptick in the world economy in prospect for 2014 and with valuations for EM equities at historic lows, the risk/reward is becoming more finely balanced. We explore the main themes that will dominate markets in 2014, why the opportunities for EM investors are becoming greater and why long-term investors should begin the process of building exposure.

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White Paper

Papers EM consumption – riding the Second Wave

1 July 2013

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Rob James and our Global Emerging Markets (“GEM”) team examine how consumption patterns are changing in Emerging Markets and the opportunities this is providing for investors as we look forward over the next decade and beyond.

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2012

WorldWatch

Globe Next year's diary

13 December 2012

What happens next? Wouldn’t it be nice to know what events and surprises will end up filling those pristine blank pages in your 2013 diary? Professional forecasters (or ‘futurists’ as they prefer to be known) will tell you that the one thing you should never do with the future is predict it – but here at WorldWatch we know that the temptation to forecast the future is irresistible (and as Oscar Wilde said, the only way to get rid of temptation is to give in to it). It may be that not everything we forecast in our 2013 diary will come to pass, but some of it surely will …

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WorldWatch

Globe The Times They Are A Changin’… for the BRICs

1 December 2012

The world is more reliant than ever on continued growth from that much feted group of economies known collectively as the BRICs. Sadly, they have proved just as fallible as their fusty old developed world counterparts. Now they need a bit of new impetus to keep themselves going. Big Bang Mk. II then? Well no, but changes aplenty and plenty to be positive about nonetheless

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White Paper

Papers Cluster analysis: it’s more than child’s play

15 May 2012

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, we feature the views of Rob James and our Global Emerging Markets (GEM) team. They manage our GEM equity strategy, a high-conviction portfolio of 40-60 stocks selected through a process of fundamental, bottom-up analysis combined with an integrated top-down macro framework.

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WorldWatch

Globe TT's 2012

2 January 2012

The arrival of the New Year diary should always be a moment for reflection. Whatever transpired in the year just past, good or bad, those blank pages for the year to come seem to offer the opportunity for change, for renewal: new people, new places, new ideas. A good thing too, you might say. The last twelve months have been unusually eventful, and many of those events have been ones that one might prefer to forget - in the hope that 2012 is going to be a lot, lot better.

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2011

WorldWatch

Globe The lesson of India

1 June 2011

Today many if not most investors still hope and expect that emerging market growth is going to save their bacon – today, tomorrow, and for quite a long time to come. The assumption is that the big emerging markets can stand the strains of ultra rapid growth without going haywire. Are they right? WorldWatch has been to India to ask that question.

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