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Tim Tacchi

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2017

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2018

8 December 2017

WorldWatch proposes several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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White Paper

Papers Benign rate environment to support further equity appreciation

5 December 2017

We argue that the global inflation outlook should remain benign in 2018, allowing central banks to tighten monetary policy extremely gradually. When combined with a modest acceleration in global growth, the outlook for equities should remain attractive, most notably in Asia and Emerging Markets. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Wages and inflation in Japan: the big freeze

4 August 2017

Inflation in Japan has been consistently close to zero over the past 20 years. Given the extreme tightness in the labour market, many argue that wages are due to rise and that inflation will subsequently take off.  Our Chief Investment Officer Tim Tacchi does not share this belief and argues in the following paper that labour market tightness in Japan does not necessarily mean rising wages or higher inflation. This is perhaps unsurprising. After all, it is difficult to achieve both reflation and reform at the same time. Reform measures are by their very nature disinflationary as they are intended to improve the productivity of labour and capital. Thankfully, limited wage gains in Japan should mean a benign environment for corporate profitability. Tim’s research was aided by Professor Naohiro Yashiro, Dean of the Global Business Department and Director of the Business Research Institute at Showa Women’s University, Tokyo.

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WorldWatch

Globe Are Emerging Markets vulnerable to rising US interest rates?

15 June 2017

With the Fed recently raising rates for the second time this year, we ask whether Emerging Markets are vulnerable to a tightening cycle in the US. 

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2016

WorldWatch

Globe Donald Trump: the good, the bad and the ugly

28 November 2016

Donald Trump's surprise victory is a watershed moment that has important ramifications for many of the world’s financial assets. We consider the global impact of Trump’s potential policies, before outlining how we are positioned to exploit the opportunities created by his victory.

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White Paper

Papers China and global growth: an uneasy symbiosis

3 November 2016

We discuss whether China is becoming less exposed to global growth and trade, before assessing how exposed the rest of the world is to an economic shock in China.

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White Paper

Papers Abenomics 2.0: a bigger bazooka

27 May 2016

TT discusses what Abenomics Mark Two could mean for Japan’s economy and its equity markets.

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WorldWatch

Globe Market turmoil: the price of uncertainty

26 February 2016

Global equities have suffered their worst start to a year since the Great Depression, credit markets have seized up, and there has been a rush towards traditional safe havens. Investors seem petrified. But of what? And, crucially, will the market turmoil persist?

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WorldWatch

Globe A week in China: soft landing still possible

2 February 2016

After a recent research visit, TT’s Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Investment Officer explain why a soft landing in China is achievable.

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2015

WorldWatch

Globe TT's surprises for 2016

1 December 2015

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe US rate rises amid a Chinese slowdown: the Big Bang?

28 September 2015

TT discusses whether investors are right to be worried about US rate rises and a Chinese slowdown, and considers which is the bigger risk. 

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2014

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2015

17 December 2014

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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White Paper

Papers Dark cloud, silver lining

8 April 2014

TT takes a trip around the world to explore where clouds of uncertainty are gathering on the horizon. 

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2012

WorldWatch

Globe Next year's diary

13 December 2012

What happens next? Wouldn’t it be nice to know what events and surprises will end up filling those pristine blank pages in your 2013 diary? Professional forecasters (or ‘futurists’ as they prefer to be known) will tell you that the one thing you should never do with the future is predict it – but here at WorldWatch we know that the temptation to forecast the future is irresistible (and as Oscar Wilde said, the only way to get rid of temptation is to give in to it). It may be that not everything we forecast in our 2013 diary will come to pass, but some of it surely will …

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WorldWatch

Globe TT's 2012

2 January 2012

The arrival of the New Year diary should always be a moment for reflection. Whatever transpired in the year just past, good or bad, those blank pages for the year to come seem to offer the opportunity for change, for renewal: new people, new places, new ideas. A good thing too, you might say. The last twelve months have been unusually eventful, and many of those events have been ones that one might prefer to forget - in the hope that 2012 is going to be a lot, lot better.

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