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Jean-Charles Sambor

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2024

WorldWatch

Globe Emerging markets under Trump: embracing the volatility

19 December 2024

We believe that Trump’s election victory is an enormous opportunity as we cross the Rubicon into a more volatile, polarised world. This investment environment will likely be characterised by increasing uncertainty, event-risk, and a divergence in performance between relative winners and losers. In short, it should suit truly active, contrarian and agile investors such as TT. In this piece, we discuss some of the scenarios that markets may be overlooking, and therefore where opportunities could lie, before outlining some potential EM winners and losers from a Trump presidency.

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White Paper

Papers Why TT for EM Debt

1 September 2024

Following a perfect storm for EM assets and years of chronic underrepresentation in global portfolios, we believe the time is right for investors to increase their allocations. Both cyclical and fundamental factors now favour EM, whilst the asset class will continue to provide significant diversification benefits at much lower valuations. Moreover, increased geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty and elevated volatility provide fertile ground for alpha generation.

However, as information becomes more widely available, the asset class is now better researched and increasingly efficient. At the same time, market structures are shifting, with local markets now dominated by domestic investors. A changing investment landscape demands a different approach. We see a strong case for a truly active, nimble and contrarian process that exploits market ‘blind spots’ and differences in behaviour between investors to generate asymmetric returns. 

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