Jean-Charles Sambor

Market Outlook

EM Debt Outlook

Outlook

Latest EM Debt economic and market outlook. 

We are modestly constructive on duration. The US curve remains relatively steep, and we believe most fiscal risks are already priced in. We want to express duration tactically, but with an overall long bias.


We remain cautious on core EM sovereign spreads. Valuations are tight, and we think there is scope for widening triggered by US markets, with spillover effects into EM. While we acknowledge the argument that momentum is improving, we do not believe spreads are immune from external shocks. That said, we continue to see very compelling opportunities in high yield and special situations. We are constructive on the long side in Venezuela, Lebanon, and distressed China names, where we see asymmetric upside.

We continue to see greater dispersion across EM rates markets. We hold negative views on low-yielders, particularly in Asia, but continue to find selective and idiosyncratic opportunities on the receiver side, with a bias towards Latin America and parts of Eastern Europe.


After trimming long EMFX positions during the summer, we have re-engaged following recent US dollar weakness. We see the underperformance of Asian currencies as overdone and are maintaining a long bias towards lower-beta Asian FX, while trading higher-beta Latin American currencies more tactically. Overall, we hold a positive stance on EMFX.

Receive our insights

Sign up to receive regular investment updates and insight about products that interest you:

Sign up now