Rob James

Market Outlook

Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) Outlook

Outlook

Latest Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) economic and market outlook. 

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We continue to be constructive on EM equities and have strong competition for capital between the different themes the fund is exposed to, running only minimal levels of cash. The asset class is enjoying support from several major tailwinds, and with compelling opportunities almost across the board, our biggest challenge at present is identifying markets to be underweight.

The North Asia tech-driven economies of Taiwan and Korea continue to benefit from AI capex and an increasingly strong memory cycle. Meanwhile, ex-hydrocarbon commodity prices are buoyant, benefiting producers from LatAm to Africa. At the same time, the ongoing lack of material dollar strength is generally helping to keep inflation well-anchored, allowing many EM central banks to cut rates. These broader tailwinds are supplemented by specific self-help opportunities based on political change in countries such as Argentina and Chile.

Our positioning is designed to efficiently capture these themes. We retain substantial exposure to the AI value chain in Taiwan & Korea, as well as gold miners. Gold is benefiting from a commodity cycle based around fears over the structural devaluation of fiat currencies. We are focusing largely on mid-cap miners with limited sell-side coverage, near-term production growth and imminent cashflow inflection points that appear underappreciated by the market.

We also have exposure to political reform opportunities in the likes of Argentina and Chile. The Chilean right’s campaign had echoes of Milei’s in the sense that they promised to cut government spending and ease some of the regulations that have hampered the development of mining projects. Having now won the election, we believe the setup for Chilean equities is very constructive.

Finally in China, our strategy is to focus on structural winners of the export-oriented growth model and domestic AI-related names, which trade at significant discounts to their western counterparts and have leading open-source models.

Important Information:

Nothing in this document constitutes or should be treated as investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security or other investment. TT is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

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