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2024

Outlook

Market Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) Outlook

10 January 2024

Latest Emerging Markets (Unconstrained) economic and market outlook. 

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Outlook

Market Asia Outlook

10 January 2024

Latest Asian economic and market outlook. 

By

Outlook

Market International Outlook

10 January 2024

Latest International economic and market outlook. 

By

Outlook

Market UK Outlook

10 January 2024

Latest UK economic and market outlook. 

By

Outlook

Market Emerging Markets (Core) Outlook

10 January 2024

Latest Emerging Markets (Core) economic and market outlook. 

By &

Outlook

Market Environmental Solutions Outlook

10 January 2024

Latest Environmental Solutions outlook. 

By &

WorldWatch

Globe EM outlook for 2024

7 January 2024

The investment landscape shifted substantially in 4Q23, with investors moving to price in a monetary policy pivot from the Fed. Our EM equity strategies performed well against a backdrop of falling bond yields. Several of our key calls generated positive alpha, including Brazilian rate-sensitive names, Mexican nearshoring beneficiaries, Argentinian oil stocks, and Korean memory plays. In this piece, we discuss our outlook for the coming year and the positions that we expect to be the key drivers of potential further alpha. 

By &


2023

WorldWatch

Globe TT Environmental Solutions | Charitable Donations

20 December 2023

At the heart of TT's Environmental Solutions Strategy is its commitment to supporting charitable causes, directing capital towards meaningful initiatives that address environmental problems and align with the fund's values. Our innovative fee structure is designed to deliver tangible impact, with one-third of our management fees given to carefully selected environmental charities at no cost to investors. In this video, we explore four distinct charities: Heal Somerset, UWA Oceans Institute, Global Returns Project, and Thousand Year Trust, all of which the strategy actively supports.

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WorldWatch

Globe TT Environmental Solutions Strategy Audio Update

30 November 2023

2023 has been a perfect storm for environmental equities generally, and for the investable universe of our Environmental Solutions Strategy in particular. But as we head into 2024, many of these headwinds are easing and a far brighter outlook beckons. In the 5-minute audio update below, Co-Portfolio Manager Andrew Raikes outlines why. In this longer written piece, he goes on to illustrate that we have record-high upside in the portfolio by discussing five holdings that we believe could double over the next three years.

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WorldWatch

Globe Environmental Equities: Storm Clearing

30 November 2023

2023 has been a perfect storm for environmental equities generally, and our investable universe in particular. But as we head into 2024, many of these headwinds are easing and a far brighter outlook beckons. In this piece we outline why, before illustrating that we have record-high upside in our portfolio by discussing five holdings that we believe could double over the next three years.

By &

WorldWatch

Globe Reflections on TT’s Sustainable EM Strategy at its 1-year anniversary

10 October 2023

The TT Sustainable EM strategy recently celebrated its 1-year anniversary, having successfully generated alpha in challenging market conditions. In this piece we reflect on the strategy’s first year and drill down further into how it beat its benchmark. 

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WorldWatch

Globe TT Webinar | Asian Equities: Opportunities Beyond China

4 October 2023

Amid China’s woes, it is easy to forget that Asia offers some of the most exciting structural growth opportunities in the world.

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White Paper

Papers Update on China and our major positions

13 September 2023

As concerns mount over China’s spluttering economy and its beleaguered property sector, investors are dumping Chinese assets and the central bank has been forced to step up its defence of a sliding renminbi. With this in mind, we thought you would appreciate a brief update on our thoughts about China and its property market specifically, as well as other major Emerging Markets. We continue to believe that developing economies will remain the world’s growth engine over the next couple of years as central banks cut rates to stimulate domestic activity. Nevertheless, the outlook is mixed for markets across the asset class, highlighting the enduring importance of integrating top-down macroeconomic analysis with bottom-up stock selection.  

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Outlook

Market China Outlook

14 July 2023

Latest Chinese economic and market outlook. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Why EM equities now?

3 July 2023

Emerging Market equities have been hovering around a 20-year valuation low versus their Developed Market counterparts for the last 5 years. We believe this is about to change, with the stars aligning for a sustained period of EM outperformance. In the paper below we outline why, before discussing why we expect our EM portfolios to see even stronger performance, with our differentiated process of integrating top-down analysis and bottom-up research yielding some of the most attractive alpha opportunities that we have seen in years.

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WorldWatch

Globe TT UK Webinar | Undervalued, Unloved and Overlooked: Opportunities in UK Equities

23 May 2023

Unique challenges in recent years have wiped out many competitors, allowing strong UK businesses to cement their leading positions. Despite this increasing dominance, valuations often remain extremely attractive, offering exceptional opportunities for investors

By

Outlook

Market European Outlook

12 March 2023

Latest European economic and market outlook. 


2022

WorldWatch

Globe COP27: Conclusions

28 November 2022

Although COP27 made clear progress, most notably in the commitment to establish a loss and damage fund to help pay for climate related damage suffered by vulnerable countries, it also felt like a missed opportunity to advance other key agenda items and strive for even greater ambition in climate policy.

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WorldWatch

Globe COP27: what to expect

4 November 2022

From 6 to 18 November, Heads of State, ministers and negotiators, along with climate activists, mayors, civil society representatives and CEOs will meet in the Egyptian coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh for the world’s largest annual gathering on climate action. COP27 will build on the outcomes of COP26 to deliver action on an array of issues critical to tackling the climate emergency – from urgently reducing greenhouse gas emissions, building resilience and adapting to the inevitable impacts of climate change, to delivering on the commitments to finance climate action in developing countries. Faced with a growing energy crisis, record greenhouse gas concentrations, and increasing extreme weather events, COP27 seeks renewed solidarity between countries, to deliver on the landmark Paris Agreement, for people and the planet. As COP27 fast approaches, we thought it would be an opportune time to reflect on some of the expected outcomes from the conference and the potential opportunities these might present for the themes and sub-themes within the TT Environmental Solutions Strategy’s investable universe.

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WorldWatch

Globe Five Reasons to Buy More EM Equities

23 August 2022

EM equities are currently experiencing one of their biggest ever corrections amid a perfect storm of tighter monetary policy, slowing global growth and crippling risk aversion. Investors may understandably be considering throwing in the towel. However, we firmly believe that the darkest hour is before the dawn, and that far from selling their holdings, investors should be increasing their allocations. Here are five reasons why.    

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White Paper

Papers Looking beyond low carbon to holistic environmental investing

30 March 2022

The world is not on track to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature targets, and low carbon investing in isolation is unlikely to change this. The magnitude of the environmental crisis facing our planet requires that allocators take bold and creative action. In this paper we set out the case for supplementing a low carbon approach with an environmental solutions strategy, which we believe will grant investors access to the biggest structural growth opportunity of a generation. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Global Emerging Markets Strategy Ukraine update

24 February 2022

The actions we have taken following the invasion of Ukraine

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2021

WorldWatch

Globe COP15 Part 1, COP26 and the Role of Biodiversity in Financial Markets

29 November 2021

With COP15 Part 1 and COP26 now over, the conferences have arguably achieved more than expected but less than hoped. To make sense of the potential impact of these events for the planet and investors, Harry Thomas, Co-Portfolio Manager of the TT Environmental Solutions Strategy, recently held a webinar discussion with leading ecology expert Dr Joseph Bull.  

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WorldWatch

Globe COP15 and COP26: what could these pivotal events mean for the planet and investors?

28 October 2021

The COP15 and COP26 events have rightly attracted much attention in the press as they are crucial if climate change and biodiversity loss are to be brought under control. At this potential turning point for the world, Harry Thomas, Co-Portfolio Manager of the TT Environmental Solutions Strategy, recently held a discussion with Dr Joseph Bull to learn more about what these events could mean, both for the planet and investors. 

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White Paper

Papers China Webinar September 2021

4 October 2021

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White Paper

Papers China’s new regulatory regime – an on the ground perspective on the risks and opportunities

30 September 2021

A summary of our recent webinar discussion between China Portfolio Manager Marco Li and Dr Ma Jun, former Chief Economist of the PBOC. 

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WorldWatch

Globe EM Miners: Time to Dig Deep

15 September 2021

Covid has blown fiscal holes wide open in many emerging economies, which are now looking to plug the gap by increasing taxation of sectors benefiting from elevated commodity prices. The future of investing in EM mining stocks is more opaque and problematic than at any point since the Global Financial Crisis. Risks abound, but so do opportunities. A focus on geographies with more rational governments is the best place to start. First, get the politics right.

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WorldWatch

Globe Turkey: the Sick Man of Emerging Europe out of Intensive Care

21 July 2021

After years of deterioration under Erdogan, Turkey may finally be on the road to recovery, with potential political change and rock-bottom valuations possibly allowing it to recapture the attention of value investors and contrarians.

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WorldWatch

Globe TT Environmental Solutions Strategy 1-Year Anniversary - Key Performance Drivers and Themes

2 June 2021

On 11th May 2021 the TT Environmental Solutions strategy celebrated its one-year anniversary. In the following piece we detail how we added value over the past year, before discussing why we find the environmental thematic so compelling, even after the rally seen in 2020. Finally, we outline some of the key sub-themes that look particularly promising. 

By &

White Paper

Papers TT Environmental Solutions Strategy - Genesis, Objectives and Key Differentiators

2 June 2021

We discuss the strategy’s genesis, objectives and key differentiators, before outlining why we find environmental equities so exciting looking forward.

By &

WorldWatch

Globe Why invest in European Equities Long/Short now?

26 May 2021

With European companies leading the structural shift to ESG investing and countries taking diverging paths out of lockdown, we feel the gap between winners and losers will be stark, giving long/short stock pickers the opportunity to generate meaningful levels of alpha. 

White Paper

Papers Impact investing 2.0: revenue sharing with charities to directly improve the environment

31 March 2021

TT International issues a rallying cry to the wider industry calling for Impact Investing 2.0, where sustainable funds give one-third of their management fees to carefully selected environmental charities, as the TT Environmental Solutions strategy does. 

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WorldWatch

Globe TT Environmental Solutions strategy Q&A

31 March 2021

We answer some of the most interesting questions that investors have asked us about the TT Environmental Solutions strategy in recent months. 

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White Paper

Papers 2020 – The year that ESG went mainstream

4 January 2021

With ESG becoming an ever-greater focus for investors, TT’s Head of ESG provides a summary of how we integrate ESG analysis into our process to help generate superior risk-adjusted returns for our clients.

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2020

WorldWatch

Globe Is now the right time to be increasing exposure to Emerging Markets?

13 August 2020

With equity markets having rebounded very strongly, it may be tempting to take profits. However, history tells us that becoming contrarian too early can be a costly mistake. 

WorldWatch

Globe Taking stock on the global economy

30 June 2020

Taking stock after an incredibly volatile first half of the year, we discuss the trends that we see ahead in the global economy, paying particular attention to the opportunities and threats for Emerging Markets.

WorldWatch

Globe TT Emerging Markets coronavirus update

28 February 2020

We outline what action our Emerging Markets strategies have been taking in light of the coronavirus.  

WorldWatch

Globe Investment implications of the coronavirus

12 February 2020

The coronavirus has tightened its grip, especially in China, with some 50,000 cases confirmed and the death toll now over 1,000. As the human and economic costs spiral, we assess the potential impact of the virus, outline what the Chinese government is doing to offset this impact, and discuss the investment implications for our portfolios. 

By &

WorldWatch

Globe Global economic and market outlook for 2020

21 January 2020

Mike Jennings, Investment Strategist, discusses TT's outlook for the year ahead. 


2019

White Paper

Papers Golden opportunity: from Made in China to Made for China

19 November 2019

It is well understood that China’s economy is currently undergoing a great rebalancing as it shifts towards a model of consumption-based growth. However, we believe that many investors fail to grasp the implications of this transformation, which we still see as one of the most powerful and exciting investment themes in the world today. In the piece below, we outline some of the key opportunities that have arisen from China’s ongoing evolution and explain the common mistakes made by investors attempting to profit. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Tug of war: global slowdown versus central bank stimulus

26 September 2019

Who will win?

White Paper

Papers Ideas for investing in late-cycle markets

23 July 2019

With global economies and markets looking increasingly late-cycle, we look at investment strategies that could perform well in this new environment. 

White Paper

Papers India: the bull case

1 July 2019

We outline the main reasons for our Indian overweight in both our Asia and EM portfolios. 

By

White Paper

Papers Where will the next crisis occur?

28 January 2019

Corporate debt could be the culprit

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2018

White Paper

Papers China: time to buy?

5 December 2018

Back in 2008, when the global economy was mired in the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, China unleashed a gigantic stimulus package worth 4 trillion yuan. Asia’s pre-eminent economic powerhouse led the world out of the downturn, with its rapid growth sparking a global recovery that helped bring the US and Europe back to life. Ten years after China “saved the world”, it is once again confronted by the threat of flagging growth, exacerbated by trade tensions with the US. With the country standing at an important crossroads, we analyse the risks as well as the opportunities in the world’s second-largest economy, and ask whether now is the right time to invest.   

By

White Paper

Papers Summary of our latest Emerging Markets Research Visit

30 May 2018

Oil prices and the dollar are stronger, US Treasury yields are rising, and several EM currencies have seen sharp sell-offs. Many investors are worried that these are warning signs of further distress to come across Emerging Markets. To assess these risks, we have spent the last two weeks travelling to some of the world’s biggest economic trouble spots. The trip has helped to reinforce our view that some countries undoubtedly face further volatility, but widespread systemic weakness across Emerging Markets is unlikely. 

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2017

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2018

8 December 2017

WorldWatch proposes several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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White Paper

Papers Benign rate environment to support further equity appreciation

5 December 2017

We argue that the global inflation outlook should remain benign in 2018, allowing central banks to tighten monetary policy extremely gradually. When combined with a modest acceleration in global growth, the outlook for equities should remain attractive, most notably in Asia and Emerging Markets. 

By

White Paper

Papers The case for Asian equities in 2017 and beyond

10 August 2017

With consistent outperformance in the three years since Duncan Robertson took on primary responsibility for TT’s Asia Pacific ex-Japan strategy, we assess the investment opportunities within the asset class and explain how TT’s process seeks to exploit these opportunities.   

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WorldWatch

Globe Wages and inflation in Japan: the big freeze

4 August 2017

Inflation in Japan has been consistently close to zero over the past 20 years. Given the extreme tightness in the labour market, many argue that wages are due to rise and that inflation will subsequently take off.  Our Chief Investment Officer Tim Tacchi does not share this belief and argues in the following paper that labour market tightness in Japan does not necessarily mean rising wages or higher inflation. This is perhaps unsurprising. After all, it is difficult to achieve both reflation and reform at the same time. Reform measures are by their very nature disinflationary as they are intended to improve the productivity of labour and capital. Thankfully, limited wage gains in Japan should mean a benign environment for corporate profitability. Tim’s research was aided by Professor Naohiro Yashiro, Dean of the Global Business Department and Director of the Business Research Institute at Showa Women’s University, Tokyo.

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WorldWatch

Globe Are Emerging Markets vulnerable to rising US interest rates?

15 June 2017

With the Fed recently raising rates for the second time this year, we ask whether Emerging Markets are vulnerable to a tightening cycle in the US. 

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White Paper

Papers The case for quality investing

10 May 2017

With valuations becoming ever more stretched, particularly in the US, our Global Equity team argue that prudence is needed for long-term investors and outline the case for investing in high-quality companies at attractive valuations. 

WorldWatch

Globe Beware! Disruption ahead

24 March 2017

Following the tumultuous geopolitical events of last year, it is reasonable to see 2017 as the beginning of a new stage in the post-crisis world economy, characterised by rising US rates, protectionism and increasing political tension. Likewise, 2017 could mark a new critical phase in disruptive innovation, which continues to transform industries around the world. In this edition of WorldWatch, we assess the potential impact of several particularly powerful disruptive forces.    

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White Paper

Papers Vietnam: the next Asian tiger?

31 January 2017

Following a recent research visit, EM Portfolio Manager Rob James assesses the opportunities and challenges facing Vietnam.

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2016

WorldWatch

Globe Donald Trump: the good, the bad and the ugly

28 November 2016

Donald Trump's surprise victory is a watershed moment that has important ramifications for many of the world’s financial assets. We consider the global impact of Trump’s potential policies, before outlining how we are positioned to exploit the opportunities created by his victory.

By

White Paper

Papers China and global growth: an uneasy symbiosis

3 November 2016

We discuss whether China is becoming less exposed to global growth and trade, before assessing how exposed the rest of the world is to an economic shock in China.

By

White Paper

Papers European banks: turning Japanese

27 September 2016

Japan’s banks have struggled to recover from a financial crisis that began in the 1990s. We argue that banks in Europe now face similar challenges following another debt-fuelled bubble.

By

WorldWatch

Globe Emerging Markets - the next opportunity

6 September 2016

Emerging Markets have flattered to deceive in recent times. In a piece that featured in LAPF Investments magazine, we outline why the tide may have finally turned for investors in the asset class. 

WorldWatch

Globe Podcast - the procedure and timetable for Brexit according to Lord Butler of Brockwell

30 June 2016

In this short podcast, Mike Jennings, Investment Strategist, asks Lord Butler of Brockwell what the likely procedure and timetable will be for the UK as it heads towards Brexit. 

WorldWatch

Globe Brexit – not just a binary decision

21 June 2016

We discuss four potential outcomes of the upcoming UK referendum and their implications for the global investor.    

White Paper

Papers Abenomics 2.0: a bigger bazooka

27 May 2016

TT discusses what Abenomics Mark Two could mean for Japan’s economy and its equity markets.

By

WorldWatch

Globe The case for and against Brexit

1 April 2016

When the British people vote in this summer’s referendum on whether or not to leave the EU, their choice will define the UK’s future for generations to come. Opinion polls suggest a victory for the Remain campaign, but this is far from certain as much of the electorate is still undecided. With so much at stake, the referendum is an issue that polarises opinion, nowhere more so than at TT. Below we argue the case for and against Brexit.  

White Paper

Papers The TT Global Emerging Markets Strategy – 5 years in

1 April 2016

With the TT Global Emerging Markets strategy having recently reached its fifth anniversary, we take stock of how the asset class has performed, how we have performed, and how we see the future. 

By

WorldWatch

Globe Market turmoil: the price of uncertainty

26 February 2016

Global equities have suffered their worst start to a year since the Great Depression, credit markets have seized up, and there has been a rush towards traditional safe havens. Investors seem petrified. But of what? And, crucially, will the market turmoil persist?

By

White Paper

Papers UK Local Government Pension Scheme reform – opportunities and dangers for pensioners

12 February 2016

The Chancellor has announced plans to pool the assets of UK Local Government Pension Schemes with the stated goal of “delivering significantly reduced costs while maintaining overall investment performance.” Whilst this should be encouraged in principle, we at TT worry that it is cost that is being primarily targeted and not value.

WorldWatch

Globe A week in China: soft landing still possible

2 February 2016

After a recent research visit, Tim Tacchi explains why a soft landing in China is achievable.

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2015

WorldWatch

Globe TT's surprises for 2016

1 December 2015

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe A week in Pakistan: old problems, new hope

27 November 2015

After a recent research visit, EM Portfolio Manager Rob James discusses the opportunities and challenges facing Pakistan.

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WorldWatch

Globe US rate rises amid a Chinese slowdown: the Big Bang?

28 September 2015

TT discusses whether investors are right to be worried about US rate rises and a Chinese slowdown, and considers which is the bigger risk. 

By

White Paper

Papers Navigating Emerging Markets in a volatile world

28 August 2015

TT addresses the most pressing concerns about Emerging Markets and suggests how best to navigate the asset class in these uncertain times.

WorldWatch

Globe Bond market tremors: tectonic shift in economic expectations?

1 June 2015

TT explains the recent bond market ructions before considering the potential impact on equities.

White Paper

Papers On the dragon’s tail: will India become the next China?

21 April 2015

TT considers whether the reform-minded government of Narendra Modi will be the catalyst for the world’s largest democracy to become a major engine of global economic growth.

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WorldWatch

Globe Europe’s economy appears to be warming up, but is this cold comfort for investors?

2 March 2015

Amid signs that the eurozone economy has turned a corner, TT considers whether European stocks can continue to outperform those in the US this year.


2014

WorldWatch

Globe TT’s surprises for 2015

17 December 2014

TT's Ideas Factory propose several potential investment surprises for the year ahead. 

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WorldWatch

Globe Cheaper oil: boon or bane?

1 December 2014

We look at the potential winners and losers from the recent slide in oil prices. 

WorldWatch

Globe China’s Minsky Moment?

6 October 2014

Given China’s twin excesses of overinvestment funded by mounting debt, we ask whether the world’s second-largest economy is approaching its “Minsky Moment”.

By

WorldWatch

Globe Emerging markets: picking up the baton

25 September 2014

We discuss how emerging markets are racing to implement structural reforms and the challenges and opportunities this presents for investors.  

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White Paper

Papers Europe – the road ahead

18 September 2014

TT considers a recent string of poor data in the Euro area and asks what opportunities this may throw up.

WorldWatch

Globe Stormy seas

25 May 2014

We take a look at what has caused the vicious rotation in developed equity markets this year and how we expect it to play out.  

By

White Paper

Papers Dark cloud, silver lining

8 April 2014

TT takes a trip around the world to explore where clouds of uncertainty are gathering on the horizon. 

By


2013

WorldWatch

Globe Opportunity knocks for Emerging Markets

1 December 2013

It has become very consensual to be bearish on Emerging Market (“EM”) equities, but with a nascent synchronised uptick in the world economy in prospect for 2014 and with valuations for EM equities at historic lows, the risk/reward is becoming more finely balanced. We explore the main themes that will dominate markets in 2014, why the opportunities for EM investors are becoming greater and why long-term investors should begin the process of building exposure.

By &

White Paper

Papers Active Share – dragging closet indexers out of the closet

14 November 2013

Active Share is a risk management measure that has been around and used for some time.  Recently, however, it has grown in prominence and is now used as widely, certainly within Europe, as tracking error when it comes to estimating and understanding the risk profile of an actively managed portfolio against its benchmark.  The aim of this paper is to discuss Active Share and its application in risk management at TT International.

White Paper

Papers EM consumption – riding the Second Wave

1 July 2013

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Rob James and our Global Emerging Markets (“GEM”) team examine how consumption patterns are changing in Emerging Markets and the opportunities this is providing for investors as we look forward over the next decade and beyond.

By

White Paper

Papers Europe 2020

3 April 2013

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Martin Pluck, TT Partner, takes on the persona of a German Politics Professor travelling to Poland in 2020 to lecture on changes in the Eurozone. The paper looks at some of the changes that could occur over the next few years.


2012

WorldWatch

Globe Next year's diary

13 December 2012

What happens next? Wouldn’t it be nice to know what events and surprises will end up filling those pristine blank pages in your 2013 diary? Professional forecasters (or ‘futurists’ as they prefer to be known) will tell you that the one thing you should never do with the future is predict it – but here at WorldWatch we know that the temptation to forecast the future is irresistible (and as Oscar Wilde said, the only way to get rid of temptation is to give in to it). It may be that not everything we forecast in our 2013 diary will come to pass, but some of it surely will …

By, &

WorldWatch

Globe The Times They Are A Changin’… for the BRICs

1 December 2012

The world is more reliant than ever on continued growth from that much feted group of economies known collectively as the BRICs. Sadly, they have proved just as fallible as their fusty old developed world counterparts. Now they need a bit of new impetus to keep themselves going. Big Bang Mk. II then? Well no, but changes aplenty and plenty to be positive about nonetheless

By

WorldWatch

Globe The views from Mars

1 October 2012

Is there an end in sight to the crisis that has gripped both real and financial economies for the last five years? Unfortunately, no. But the shape of the crisis is changing. The troubles of the eurozone have been stabilised, for now. The global banking system is much more resilient than it was. And economies that should be growing – in emerging Asia, eastern Europe, and Africa – are growing. But the fear focus has shifted as markets worry about the threat from elsewhere. 

White Paper

Papers Taming the beast: a fresh perspective on valuing banks

1 October 2012

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, Adrienne Giliomee, TT’s Financials Analyst, explains why she believes it is still possible to value bank stocks despite unprecedented levels of volatility and uncertainty.

By

WorldWatch

Globe Beware the contrarian within

1 August 2012

There is more than a little bit of the contrarian in everyone. No one wants to be just a member of the crowd. Most investors would like to be able to claim moments of unusual insight, when their conviction that market consensus was simply wrong turned out to be simply right. For the rewards, when a contrarian stance proves correct, can be substantial.

WorldWatch

Globe Curb your expectations

1 July 2012

When bad things are in the diary and also in the price – that is just the sort of time when investors start thinking markets might start to surge. After all, you only need one big bad thing not to happen for the mood to change. Euro break-up, US fiscal cliff, China crash, all bad things that might not happen – plenty of scope there for an upside surprise, you might think. So how big is the upside risk? Answer: it is significant, but don’t hold your breath.

White Paper

Papers Cluster analysis: it’s more than child’s play

15 May 2012

In this issue of our ‘Thoughts from the Ideas Factory’ white paper series, we feature the views of Rob James and our Global Emerging Markets (GEM) team. They manage our GEM equity strategy, a high-conviction portfolio of 40-60 stocks selected through a process of fundamental, bottom-up analysis combined with an integrated top-down macro framework.

By

WorldWatch

Globe Actually, the bad news comes later

2 May 2012

With the spring rally over, investors everywhere are asking whether this is a pause or the beginning of something darker. The recovery is losing momentum. European sovereign debt is a growing worry. But in the big picture tail risks are much reduced, and that means limited downside.

WorldWatch

Globe The invisible continent

1 March 2012

Last year was terrible for both developing and developed markets.  But the world’s growth economies are still growing, and few are growing as fast or as reliably as the economies of Africa.  Adventurous investors are getting interested in the world’s oldest continent. Are they on the right track? 

WorldWatch

Globe TT's 2012

2 January 2012

The arrival of the New Year diary should always be a moment for reflection. Whatever transpired in the year just past, good or bad, those blank pages for the year to come seem to offer the opportunity for change, for renewal: new people, new places, new ideas. A good thing too, you might say. The last twelve months have been unusually eventful, and many of those events have been ones that one might prefer to forget - in the hope that 2012 is going to be a lot, lot better.

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2011

WorldWatch

Globe The borrowers

1 November 2011

Is there really too much debt in the world economy? Not so long ago this question was seldom asked. Today the word on the street is that debt is bad. There is too much debt, too much of it is the wrong sort, and too much is in the wrong places. Right or wrong? 

WorldWatch

Globe The big reset

1 September 2011

It is an understatement to say that markets everywhere have been taken by surprise by the extent of the sentiment reversal over the last six weeks. We have witnessed a rare and brutal revision of basic assumptions – and it is still continuing. So what is driving the current ‘reset’, where does it end, and how should investors position? 

WorldWatch

Globe Europe’s nightmare

1 August 2011

Sovereign debt is clearly the critical issue of the moment. In the last few weeks we have seen Europe’s debt crisis morph from what seemed like a package of local issues to what looks suspiciously like a systemic threat. The survival of the eurozone is increasingly a matter for discussion, and the implications are nightmarish. Yet the question remains: why?

WorldWatch

Globe The lesson of India

1 June 2011

Today many if not most investors still hope and expect that emerging market growth is going to save their bacon – today, tomorrow, and for quite a long time to come. The assumption is that the big emerging markets can stand the strains of ultra rapid growth without going haywire. Are they right? WorldWatch has been to India to ask that question.

By

WorldWatch

Globe Oil is key, again

1 May 2011

The policy cycle has turned, the macro-economic newsflow cycle has turned, and the corporate profits boom is set to ease back. Above all, oil remains high, a big medium-term threat to markets and economies. So what does this mean for equities? 

WorldWatch

Globe Aftershocks in Japan

1 April 2011

The earthquake that struck off the coast of Japan on March 11 was a human catastrophe that commands sympathy, support and respect. Well over 10,000 are dead, half a million people are displaced, and towns and villages over a long stretch of coast have been obliterated. That is the immediate cost. What of the long-term impact on Japan, the world’s second-largest developed economy?

WorldWatch

Globe The Middle East

1 February 2011

The Middle East is in turmoil. First Tunisia, then Egypt: the west is losing its friends in the region rather fast, and markets are beginning to get rattled.  What comes next?